DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/29 10:47

   Corn, soybeans and wheat: All Lower at Midday Tuesday

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents 
higher, and wheat futures are 1 to 8 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market is weaker at midday with the S&P 22 points lower. The 
dollar index is 33 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy 
trade is weaker with crude .90 lower and natural gas .07 cents lower. Livestock 
trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 18.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower with light two sided trade and we 
continue to chop along the lower end of the recent range heading towards the 
stocks report tomorrow with early strength fading. On the report, trade is 
looking for corn stocks at 1.92 billion bushels.

   Ethanol margins will remain solid even as unleaded slips a bit from the 
upper end of the range to narrow blender margins. The daily export wire was 
quiet again today. Weather looks to keep the western belt wetter through 
midweek with weekly crop progress showing 72% mature vs. 71% on average, 18% 
harvested, same as average and conditions unchanged at 57% good to excellent 
and 17% poor to very poor.

   Basis will likely continue to drift short term. On the December chart the 
20-day at $5.32 is resistance as we failed to hold above it with the lower 
Bollinger band at 5.20 as support which we tested this morning.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday with oil leading the product 
complex as the short squeeze in meal continues to fade. Meal is flat to 1.00 
higher and oil is 70 to 80 points higher. On the report, trade is looking for 
stocks at 323 million bushels.

   Harvest will remain slowed by excess rains in the west with weekly crop 
progress showing 75% dropping leaves and 17% harvested both same as average 
with 58% good to excellent(0) and 13% poor to very poor(-1). The daily export 
wire was quiet again today.

   Basis will start to drift lower if harvest can expand next week but will 
remain bid for now at processors in slow areas. On the November contract chart 
resistance is the 20-day at 13.13 where we find the 20-day moving average with 
the Lower Bollinger Band at 12.90 which we closed near as further support.

WHEAT:

   Wheat is 1 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade drifting back towards the 
lows overnight with fresh bullish news lacking and the firmer dollar limiting 
upside.

   Stocks are expected to be at 1.894 billion bushels tomorrow. Better rains 
into late month should help support early wheat drilling on the plains along 
with planting at 27% vs. 34% on average, and emergence at 8% vs. 11% on 
average. Matif wheat is flat to firmer after the recent weakness as well. On 
the KC December chart resistance is the 20-day at $8.06 with the fresh low at 
$7.34 3/4 as support.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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